Data Shows House Prices On Road To Recovery
With the financial year now completed, the annual data dump of statistics has begun with the 2022-2023 financial year showing property prices have bottomed out and now appear to be rising again.
Whilst property prices across many suburbs on the Gold Coast have seen significant falls, a recovery is now underway according to the latest PropTrack data released last week.
The Gold Coast Bulletin ran an article based on the PropTrack findings and unfortunately suburbs including Robina and Varsity Lakes were highlighted as having the steepest overall declines over the past year.
As you will see below in the article headlined "House prices on the road to recovery", Robina, Varsity Lakes and Merrimac have experienced house price declines of between 12% & 13.5% although the most recent quarter of April to June has once again seen price growth.
Whilst prices are now rebounding, over the past financial year, just two suburbs on the Gold Coast recorded house price increases.
The article that appeared in the recent Gold Coast Bulletin is our feature piece this week.
Please see below.
House prices on road to recovery
Gold Coast house prices are showing strong signs of recovery despite some suburbs taking a battering over the year amid the Reserve Bank’s assault on borrowing power.
PropTrack quarterly data shows house prices fell by up to 13.5 per cent since last year in all but two suburbs, but that trend has reversed since March, with gains of up to the same amount in all areas besides Merrimac and Clear Island Waters.
And citywide figures proved the broader market’s resilience, with the home price index for houses and units combined up 4 per cent over the year and 2.4 per cent since March to $840,000.
PropTrack’s suburb breakdown shows some of the Coast’s more affordable central suburbs took the biggest annual hit, with prices in Merrimac down 13.5 per cent to $836,163 and 12 per cent in both Varsity Lakes and Robina, to $972,677 and $1.097m respectively.
Another seven suburbs recorded falls of more than 10 per cent, including Ashmore, Parkwood, Molendinar, Southport and Willow Vale, as well as pandemic hot spots, Clear Island Waters and Currumbin Valley.
Most other suburbs posted losses of 5 per cent or more.
Benowa and Surfers Paradise were the only areas where house prices were up, by 7.6 and 1.4 per cent respectively, to $1.55m and $2.43m.
The Coast’s other $2m-plus suburb, Mermaid Beach, recorded a modest fall of 2.9 per cent, while prices were down 1.3 per cent in Bundall, where the median was just shy of $2m.
It comes as the RBA this week pressed pause on its rollout of interest rate hikes, holding at 4.1 percent, just the second monthly reprieve since May 2022.
PropTrack economist Angus Moore said the continued flow of interstate migration had shielded the local market.
“The Gold Coast has held up fairly well in the face of higher interest rates, and that speaks to the ongoing demand we’re seeing for property in southeast Queensland,” Mr Moore said.
“While that demand is not as strong as during the pandemic, when interstate migration picked up very swiftly, southeast Queensland continues to be a popular area and the fact prices are holding up indicates that continued movement of people.”
Suburbs where buyers were more likely to require a mortgage were most affected by interest rates, while higher capital growth could be expected in markets attracting cash buyers, such as downsizers purchasing with significant wealth from the sale of larger properties held for longer.
For quarterly gains, the data put Benowa in front, with house prices up 13.4 per cent since March to $1.55m, while a further six suburbs recorded increases of more than 5 per cent, including Bundall, Hollywell, Paradise Point, Currumbin Waters, Coolangatta and Tugun.
For units, Main Beach and Arundel were the strongest annual performers, with prices up 7.6 and 6 per cent, to $1.32m and $660,731 respectively, while apartment prices dipped more than 10 per cent in five suburbs — Currumbin, Palm Beach, Currumbin Waters, Runaway Bay and Miami.
Real Estate Institute of Australia (REIA) Queensland spokesman Andrew Bell said the Gold Coast remained “one of the best-performing markets in the country”, driven by a shortage of available homes, but warned continued financial pressure on homeowners could bring a shift.
“We’ll be watching whether more supply comes online as a result of the long-sustained financial pressures caused by higher interest rates and higher cost of living,” Mr Bell said.
“While statistics on savings suggest there is still a buffer for most households, there is an expectation there will be many households that will be forced to sell if interest rates remain at their current levels for much longer.”
Ray White chief economist Nerida Conisbee said FOMO — or fear of missing out — was creeping back into the market as buyer demand continued despite higher interest rates and a slowing economy.
“The best time to buy is the low of the market,” Ms Conisbee said.
“Last year, we saw a lot of buyers watching and waiting for the housing market to crash, or the prices to come down substantially, the idea being that they could swoop in and grab a bargain.”
“Instead of a crash, we have seen some decent performance this year and it is likely that this is going to continue to drive more buyers into the market.”