Are Listing Numbers Increasing?
A question that is often asked of us is are listing numbers increasing?
With all forms of media currently declaring that new listings to market are increasing, a report released by Realestate.com.au on Friday shows just how listing conditions vary from region to region and state to state.
With many sellers and buyers hearing news of the increase in new listing numbers, it’s interesting to note that all of these headlines refer to the Southern markets of Sydney and Melbourne.
Ironically, here in South East Queensland, listings numbers are actually trending lower than the year on year average which emphasises what an incredible opportunity sellers have in the market right now.
With inspection numbers increasing as we move through Spring and with stock levels still incredibly tight, sellers can list their home with confidence in the knowledge that selling conditions are unlikely to get any better in the current cycle than they are right now.
The full Proptrack National Spring listing report is our feature article this week.
We have included the full summary of all states and cities so that you can present this research to your clients from a National perspective.
The full report is below as well as CoreLogics Housing Market update for October 2023.
The property market had a busy start to spring with new listings sitting 4.5% higher year-on-year.
Executive summary
The number of homes hitting the market picked up compared to 12 months ago, with new for sale listings sitting 4.5% higher year-on-year in September.
Despite the overall rise, there are significant differences by state. Australia’s three most expensive capital cities – Sydney, Melbourne and Canberra – have seen the highest year-on-year growth in new listings.
Selling activity has picked up the most in Greater Sydney, with new listings up 21.3% year-on-year. Melbourne and Canberra followed, with new listings up 10.1% and 4.9% respectively.
Perth, in contrast, saw new listings fall 12.8% year-on-year, the largest drop of any capital city. The only other cities to see a decline in new listings over the past 12 months were Darwin, down 11.3%, and Brisbane, down 4.2%.
The number of new listings across Australia’s combined capital cities was 5.9% higher in September of this year compared to last, while combined regional areas saw new listings up 2.3% over the same 12-month period.
An improvement in seller sentiment has been a key driver behind the annual rise in the number of new listings. This time last year, sentiment among both buyers and sellers was falling, with the market in the midst of one of the most aggressive series of interest rate hikes ever undertaken by the Reserve Bank.
Interest rates are now largely predicted to have reached their peak, having held steady since July. This has supported a recovery in sentiment which, according to realestate.com.au’s Residential Audience Pulse, has recorded a significant jump from the start of the year.
While they were up annually, national new listings were down 7.1% month-on-month. Capital cities drove the decline, recording an 11% drop in new listings in September compared to August, while regional areas held relatively steady, dipping just 0.3%.
Despite the monthly fall in new listings, total listings held relatively steady, rising by 0.8% month-on-month. This is likely a result of the high number of properties listed in August, many of which were still on the market in September.
With more homes for sale, this provided more choice for buyers and helped to alleviate the pressure to bid early to avoid missing out.
Where to from here?
While spring is typically the most popular time of year to sell a property, it isn’t uncommon for fewer new listings to be seen in September compared to August, with this occurring during five of the past 10 years. Factors dampening selling activity in September were the school holidays, the AFL Grand Final long weekend in Victoria and the Labour Day long weekend in a number of states.
October, in contrast, has consistently recorded a monthly increase in new for sale listings over each of the past 10 years, an outcome that is expected to be repeated this year. In addition to the seasonal impact, listings volumes will be supported by strong selling conditions in most markets.
Property prices have climbed every month in 2023, recovering last year’s falls to reach a new peak in September. What’s more, the outlook for the property market remains strong. Interest rates are likely at, or very close to, peak levels, and Australia’s population is growing at close to record speeds which is driving increased demand for housing.
Queensland
The supply of homes for sale remained tight in Queensland, with fewer new listings compared to 12 months ago.
Queensland saw fewer homes for sale in September, with new listings down both over the month and the year.
The number of homes newly listed for sale in Greater Brisbane was 7.3% lower in September compared to August, while regional Queensland saw new listings down 6.6% over the month.
Year-on-year, the number of new listings in Greater Brisbane and regional Queensland fell by 4.2% and 8.5%, respectively.
Total listings have seen an even greater decline over the past 12 months, sitting 14% lower in Greater Brisbane and 10.3% lower in regional Queensland.
With fewer options, competition among buyers remains high, and those homes that hit the market are selling fast. In September, the median time taken for a property to sell fell to the lowest level seen in 18 months.
Restrained supply amid strong buyer demand is also supporting prices which, over the 12 months ending September, grew by 5.8% in Greater Brisbane and 4.9% in regional Queensland.
Click here to see CoreLogic's National Housing Market Update for October 2023.